
There
are various factors which hinder the in-car-computing technology
to be a part of the regular feature in the cars of the future,
this include:
Price
barrier
This
more expensive and robust version of in-car computing won't
hit the road for a few years. When it does, it's likely
to be more expensive than the AutoPC. Analysts believe that
the $1,000 to $2,000 price range for such in-car
computing is in line with the cost of other options introduced
in the past. Anti-lock brakes originally cost about that
much but are now standard. Radios, which are now commonplace,
cost about $110 when first introduced around 1930. That
was a hefty option price when the average car cost $700
and a luxury car tipped the scales at about $2,000. The
radio took 20 years to be accepted and reach a price point
where it was acceptable to consumers. With silicon
manufacturing capabilities and advances, the pace is so
much faster. In six months one can make tremendous steps
forward. In two or three years you can get this technology
integrated into silicon at very low cost." Despite
the fact that concept cars have been built, there are virtually
no cars rolling down the streets today with in-car computers.
At present, GPS receivers are more common in Japan and Europe
than the United States, primarily because of the cost/benefit
ratio. It's harder to get lost on the U.S. road system,
so there's less need to use GPS to tell where you are. For
the more general purpose in-car computers, the problem is
the same: the cost is too high. At a meeting of the Intelligent
Transportation Society of America (ITS America) in Detroit
in May 1998, a representative from Toyota said that what
the automotive industry needs is five times the computing
power of todayıs desktop units for about $500. Given Moore's
law that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every
few years, the desired computing muscle isn't that far off.
The result will not only be units that are cheaper but that
can do a better job on such tasks as speech recognition.
Temperature
barrier
Another
barrier is that a car is not a desktop. While the temperature
inside most homes hovers at around 70 degrees, the temperature
inside a car plunges well below 0 and soars above 100. The
same wild swings happen with humidity, dust, vibration,
and other environmental factors. These variations may occur
mainly when a car is parked, but to a driver, a parked car
is simply a car that isn't moving. "The product has
to work when you fire up the engine. If it doesn't work,
then obviously you can't do anything.Having to work at lower
temperatures is a problem not only for the electronics but
also other system elements. A liquid crystal display, for
instance, freezes at very low temperatures and washes out
at very high ones. Manufacturers are working to overcome
issues like these, and solutions are in sight, but they
haven't been implemented yet.
Human
Error
There's
also the question of safety, driver safety. It does little
good to tell a driver how to avoid traffic congestion if
doing so causes an accident by distracting the driver. The
same problem arises when drivers are listening to e-mail
and become too engrossed in it. Many such human factors
must be considered. The problem becomes especially complex
with some of the more advanced implementations, which might
make use of heads-up display technology from fighter planes.
Networking
Problems
Another
safety concern is a more subtle one. Cars are already crawling
with computers in the engine block, the brake system, and
elsewhere. There are even networks to connect these devices
together. It would be nice to pluck diagnostic information
from such computers, but it has to be done safely. Data
intended for consumer consumption cannot be allowed to worm
its way onto the car information bus. That could lead to
such potential catastrophes as air bags deploying or brakes
malfunctioning at random. That's why all in-car computing
schemes put a gateway or firewall between the consumer system
and the in-car operational computers.
Product
or Service?
A hidden
issue of in-car computing is the interface between the car
and the transportation system. In the old days, this interface
was confined to where the rubber hit the road. In the future,
there will be a great deal of information some of it public,
like traffic conditions that drivers will want. At present
it looks as though such interface systems will be the result
of public-private partnerships "Putting the Smart in
Smart Highways". A variation on this infrastructure
question is who will pay for the air time. All of the in-car
computing schemes make use of wireless data exchange for
such features as traffic information, Web connections, and
personal phone calls. Depending on how much usage there
is, this could add up to some significant minutes per month.
Advertising
a solution
One suggestion
on how this might be paid for is through the sale of advertising.
However, instead of a message played over a radio, the approach
might be something like this. Say the car, through sensors,
recognizes that it's time to get gas. The car can tell the
driver it's low on fuel and point out there's a station
up ahead three blocks on the right. The driver gets gas,
and the station gets targeted advertising to customers who
need its service. In return, the station, or the national
gas company, would pay for the customer's wireless air time.
There are, of course, other possible methods, including
that of having the driver pay.
Time
and Technology barrier
However,
there's another interface to consider the one between the
car and the computer. Today a computer is obsolete in a
few years due to technological advances. Over the same time,
cars remain largely unchanged. They certainly don't become
obsolete, replaced by something that's twice as fast for
half the price. One solution to this divergence would be
to replace the in-car computer every few years. This implies
that in-car computers won't be like traditional car accessories,
but then they may not be anyway.
Speech
barrier
In theory,
speech recognition is easy. Take the output from a human
voice, run it through an analyzer, match it against the
output from all known words, and magically the corresponding
text appears.
In practice
things are a bit more difficult. Take the case of a phone
conversation. The telephone network limits the speech frequencies
transmitted to about three kilohertz. Actual speech, particularly
the letters "s" and "c," uses up to
eight or nine kilohertz. Those higher frequencies don't
make it down the telephone wire. The human mind and ear
are good enough to extract information despite this truncation,
but for machines, the lost data is vital. Similar problems
arise due to slight variations in how individuals talk.
That's
one of the reasons why today's best dictation programs require
head-mounted microphones and have to be trained to individual
users. That's also why speaker-independent systems, such
as those used by in-car computers and the like, can only
understand a few commands. It's easier to discard the vast
majority of audio input as noise and concentrate on just
a few words.
The onward
march of semiconductors will help, of course. As more computing
power becomes available, what today is impossible accurate
transcription of telephone conversations, courtroom proceedings,
and business meetings will become very possible.
Smart
in Smart Highways
Somewhere
beyond the current crop of in-car computers lies science-fiction
visions of cars that drive themselves. Nowadays dubbed intelligent
transportation systems (ITS), these systems were at one
time called smart cars and smart highways.
While
none of the proposed in-car computers will drive a car,
they are capable of intermediate ITS functions. For instance,
getting accurate traffic information would enable drivers
to avoid congestion. With GPS pinpointing location and a
wireless modem to connect an in-car computer to a network,
everything would be in place to deliver up-to-the-minute
traffic information. Everything, that is, except getting
the data to the driver.
Increasingly,
state departments of transportation and other government
entities are posting traffic information on Web sites. For
the average commuter, however, it's impossible, and downright
dangerous, to try to scan a computer screen while driving.
What's more, simply getting a mass of information about
an entire metropolitan area's gridlock woes isn't much use.
What's needed is something that filters the information
and packages it in a way that is useful for the commuter.
Today this doesn't exist. However, just such a service may
soon be in place. You're starting to see there will be private
companies that will offer that interface.
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